Skip to main content
All manual pages
bondsFREE

Bonds and yield curve

US Treasury yields, the shape of the yield curve, the spreads that warn of a slowdown and the overnight funding rate, all on one page.

Bond yields drive mortgage rates, growth stocks and the dollar. This page shows what the US Treasury market is pricing: the yield on each maturity from one month to thirty years, how the curve has changed over time, and the gaps between maturities that traders use as recession signals. Data comes from official Federal Reserve data, so readings are end-of-day and each card shows its date.

The US Treasury yield curve with its status tagThe US Treasury yield curve with its status tag
The US Treasury yield curve with its status tag

How to read the yield curve

  1. Open Bonds from the Macro group in the sidebar.
  2. Check the banner at the top for the current Fed Funds Rate and the date of the Next FOMC meeting.
  3. Read the tag next to US Treasury Yield Curve. NORMAL means longer bonds pay more. FLAT means the gap is small. INVERTED means short-term bonds pay more than long-term ones.
  4. Tick Today, 1 Month Ago, 3 Months Ago, 1 Year Ago and 5 Years Ago to draw up to five lines and see how the curve has moved.
  5. Hover a point on the chart for the exact yield and its date.

How to track an inversion

  1. Scroll below the curve to the INVERSION_TRACKER. It has one card for the 10Y-2Y gap and one for 3M-10Y.
  2. Each card says NORMAL or INVERTED, the gap in basis points, the current streak of days, how many days of the last five years were inverted, and the deepest reading with its date.
  3. The line chart under the cards shows both gaps over time. Below zero means inverted.

How to see each maturity

  1. Find TREASURY_RATES. Each card is one maturity with its yield, change and a small trend.
  2. Click a card to open its history chart above the cards. Click it again to close.
  3. Free accounts see 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, 20-year and 30-year. Pro and Terminal add 1-month, 3-month, 6-month and 1-year.

How to read spreads and SOFR

The KEY_SPREADS section is for Pro and Terminal.

  1. Read 10Y-2Y Spread and 10Y-3M Spread. A negative number means the curve is inverted.
  2. Read 5Y-2Y Spread and 30Y-5Y Spread for the middle and long end of the curve.
  3. Read SOFR (Overnight Funding), the rate banks pay to borrow cash overnight against Treasuries. A jump in SOFR means funding is tightening.
  4. Click a card to see its history. The two derived spreads, 5Y-2Y and 30Y-5Y, don't open a chart.

How to check inflation-adjusted yields

  1. Find REAL_YIELDS_TIPS. This section is Terminal only.
  2. Read the 5-year, 10-year and 30-year TIPS yields, which show what bonds pay after inflation.
  3. Read Breakeven Inflation (10Y), the inflation rate the market is pricing in.

How to get an AI read

  1. Pro and Terminal accounts see Bond Market Summary at the top right. Click it for a short written summary.
  2. Under Recession Indicators, click AI ANALYSIS for a read on the yield curve spreads. It opens in a side panel.
  3. Recession Indicators also shows Inversion Warning or No Inversion for three gaps: 10Y-2Y, 10Y-3M and 3M-Fed Funds.

Good to know

  • Yields are end of day, not live. The badge on each card shows the date.
  • Click Explain on a card for a plain-English take. It needs Pro.

If something doesn't work

  • A card shows N/A: the data source may be slow. Reload in a minute.
  • A section is locked: KEY_SPREADS needs Pro, REAL_YIELDS_TIPS needs Terminal.